Search Results (1,152)

Time series analysis is a method of key importance for systems of various hierarchies’ economic security studies. This article’s main goal is to develop an economic security rapid indicators system, introducing threshold values and utilizing indices with a one-month sampling period, and its approbation during Russia’s economic security operational monitoring. In order to develop such a system, the authors accumulated economic security world experience including reliability, visibility and tree structure principles. The authors’ monitoring system includes four spheres: real economy, social, monetary and foreign economic, each of which contains three indicators. In order to organize economic security monitoring, it is proposed to use the index method, which converts indicators into a dimensionless form with integral values in subsequent calculations. Based on integral indices values, the economic security generalized index is synthesized, which can be used to analyze a system’s development trends. We present economic security normalized indicators and integral indices dynamics for the years 2020–2022, which show two crises dynamics. The first is due the COVID-19 pandemic, while the second is associated with economic sanctions against Russia, implemented in 2022. The proposed economic security operational monitoring indicators system can be used effectively in the government’s practical tasks in order to ensure the required level of economic security. This is especially true for rapid diagnosis of crisis phenomena in countries and individual regions. Full article

We study whether remote sensing (RS), a set of technologies with global reach and a variety of applications, can be considered instrumental to the provision of global public goods (GPG). We exploit text information from patent data and apply structural topic modeling to identify topics related (or relevant) to GPG provision, and trace their participation in the evolution of remote sensing technology over time. We develop a new indicator of affinity to GPG (and other themes) using meta information from our dataset. We find that, first, RS displays features of a general-purpose technology. Second, while peripheral, GPG-relevant topics are present in the RS topic space, and in some cases overlap with topics with high affinity in AI and participation of public sector actors in invention. With our analysis, we contribute to a better understanding of the interplay between the dynamics of technology and (global) political economy, a field of research yet under-explored. Full article

Improving the efficiency in the links in the supply chains of agri-food products is relevant in terms of the assessment methodology and practical aspects for ensuring and supporting sustainable supply chains of products not only in individual channels of product movement but also in the end-to-end supply chain of products, i.e., from the field to the end consumer. However, it is still unclear which supply chain opportunities in commodity distribution channels are more effective for creating end-to-end sustainable supply chains for agri-food products. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the impact of agri-food supply channels on the efficiency and link in supply chains, taking into account the factors affecting them and developing recommendations for their improvement. Quantitative methods based on correlation and regression analysis using the EViews program on the basis of Kazakh statistical data for 2008–2022 were used. A methodology is proposed for assessing the effectiveness of the functioning and links in commodity movement in the supply chains of agricultural products at the macroeconomic level based on the consideration and use of important factors affecting the efficiency and links: production and sales volumes, total costs, and profitability for each supply channel: “production–processing–industrial production–trade”. The relationship between the efficiency and the links in supply chains and also the key factors that affect them have been established. The results showed that the increase in the efficiency in supply channels in the commodity distribution system leads to a decrease in the coefficient of the link in commodity movement and inventory availability. To reduce the link ratio in the supply chains of agri-food products, it is necessary to increase the efficiency in supply chains in each supply chain link and reduce the share of retail trade in the gross turnover. Recommendations are proposed to improve supply chain efficiency and reduce links to support and create end-to-end sustainable supply chains of agri-food products. The study makes an essential contribution to providing empirical evidence of the relationship between the effectiveness of agri-food supply channels and the link in the supply chain. Since few works describe the relationship between the links of product distribution and the efficiency in supply chains in the literature, in this work, it was possible to propose a methodology and identify factors and gaps in research to identify potential areas for future research. Full article

This research note addresses the question of how permanent workers perceive their individual job security if their firm employs temporary workers with fixed-term contracts and temporary agency workers. One the one hand, the core-periphery hypothesis predicts that permanent workers should have fewer concerns about job security if the firm employs temporary workers to deal with demand fluctuations. On the other hand, a counteracting substitution effect might increase concerns about job security. Using linked employer-employee data and estimating regression models at the worker level with establishment fixed effects, evidence supports the core-periphery hypothesis for temporary agency work but not for fixed-term contracts. Full article

The Latin American export in the manufacturing sector is 18% lower than the world average. Although between the 1980s and 1990s, the sophistication of exportable products increased by 13%, it is evident to see the low progress of the Latin American region to consolidate the change in its productivity and its dependence on oil extraction activities, minerals, and other raw materials. This article evaluates and quantifies the impact of human capital, globalization, and the role of the efficiency of institutions in the sophistication of production in Latin America compared to economies with greater complexity. This is conducted using panel data methodology with cointegration techniques, using data from 17 countries that belong to the continental part of Latin America and 10 countries with the greatest economic complexity according to the Atlas of Economic Complexity Index. These countries are classified by their income level, data compiled by the United Nations Development Program Indicators, the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity, the Swiss Economic Institute database, and the Heritage Foundation. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between the explanatory variables and economic complexity. However, the nature of the relationships differs between the different income levels, finding the same trend in the cointegration analyses. It requires the adoption of public policies in the curricular and evaluative field of knowledge and skills as well as the fight against corruption in public and private sectors, motivating the improvement of bilateral relations with other countries in an economic, political, and social way. Full article

The main object of this research is to find out the nexus of banks’ competition, ownership structure, and economic growth on credit risk and financial stability. In addition, it examines the level of financial stability, economic growth, and ownership structure in the Middle East and North African (MENA) economies. The generalized method of moments (GMM) method was used to examine this study. The study used an unbalanced panel dataset from 2011 to 2021 in MENA countries. This research demonstrates a negative relationship between economic growth, credit risk, and financial stability in MENA economies; nevertheless, it proves an insignificant effect among them. It also shows that the lower the level of bank competition, the lower the level of bank risk taking, and the better the level of financial stability. It further found that market competition and bank ownership structure had a homogenous effect on financial stability when looking at the impact of competition and bank ownership structure. In the long-term sense, the square term of competition is highly favorable with financial stability models ((Lerner square × Islamic banks), (Lerner square × commercial banks), (Lerner square × specialized government institutions)). However, financial stability improves with time, as seen by the competition square term bank ownership structure (a square measure of competition) with the Lerner index (LI) and the Herfindahl–Hirschman index total assets (HHIA). This finding of the square measure of competition is supported by competition stability theory. However, this study also proved that Islamic and commercial banks are less vulnerable to credit risk than specialized government institutions (SGI). This study scrutinized how MENA economies can remain stable through banking competition. This study builds a new brand of literature review. As a result, this research gives MENA policymakers better ideas for making policies that help the banking environment. Full article

This paper examines Croatian Regional Value Chains (RVCs). We use the value chain approach to study supply chains, examining data specifically for Croatia and its proximate trading partners in the European Union, as well as some other European countries. The value added in Croatian exports is statistically related to the value added in the exports of Croatian trading partners. We argue that Croatian RVCs are organized around regional production centers, with proximity to production capacity, raw materials, and customers as driving factors, and thus most of the value added originates in these RVCs. This paper emphasizes the advantages of representing trade through value added over traditional gross trade statistics and highlights the robustness of RVCs in Croatia to global shocks and transportation reliability issues. We conclude that despite its small absolute size, the Croatian economy is dynamically well-integrated into the EU RVCs, which is crucial for increasing business efficiency and competitiveness, notwithstanding the constraints of relatively low returns to scale. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of RVCs in Croatia and their potential benefits for Croatia in the global production organization. Full article

An array of global events, including the global financial crisis, natural disasters, and the recent coronavirus pandemic, have consistently shown the vulnerability of global systems and humans to externally undesirable contagions. In order to further provide alternative approaches to information valuation, this study utilized the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of 21 leading developed and developing economies (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America) over the period January 1997 to May 2021. The information theory reveals the hierarchy of degrees of randomness in the EPU indices; it shows the information flow among the EPU indices through the mutual information metric and the graphical illustration of the information flows using network theory. Importantly, the Entropy measures indicate higher predictability of the Netherlands and Ireland’s EPU indices, suggesting that they have less randomness than other indices. Contrarily, Greece and the United Kingdom share the lowest predictability of the EPU indices. Moreover, the complex networks analysis shows that the EPU indices is generally shaped by geographic location. In order of significance, the United States of America’s EPU index exhibits the strongest correlation with other countries’ EPU indices and followed by the EPU indices of France, the United Kingdom (UK), and Germany. In general, the result of the investigation communicates relevant policy measures that potentially ameliorate shocks from external contagions. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced significant uncertainty across various economic sectors, most notably in the industrial sector due to the high volatility in copper futures markets. These markets play a crucial role in the construction, electrical networks, electronic products, and industrial machinery industries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of copper futures returns from 2 January 2018 to 30 December 2022 using an extended ARMA(m,n)–GARCH(p,q) framework. According to the results, the occurrence of the pandemic nearly doubled the long-run equilibrium volatility of returns compared to the values obtained in the pre-pandemic period. Hence, we conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant influence on the volatility in the copper futures market. Full article

This paper examines the subnational dimension of regional value-added transfers in multiscalar value chains in Brazil by analyzing the local content embedded in trade. This study reveals distinct spatial-based connectivity patterns within subnational and global value chains. An input–output model is employed to estimate the trade in value added from different Brazilian regions. The findings demonstrate that economically advanced regions, such as Southeastern Brazil, are both globally and nationally integrated and therefore stand to benefit from both types of integration. Conversely, subnational peripheries in the North and Northeastern states of Brazil play a crucial role in supplying raw materials for both domestic and global flows. These regions exhibit a clear profile of export dependency with low value-added content in trade. Consequently, our trade measures highlight a spatial concentration of development opportunities characterized by a distinct core–periphery pattern within the country. This imbalance in territorial capacity limits the potential for these regions to derive economic development benefits from integration into value chains. Full article

The labor market can be a daunting place for young graduates; this paper aims to shed light on how they navigate it. By examining the ways in which they enter the workforce and the impact of individual and socioeconomic factors on their career paths, we gain a deeper understanding of the challenges they face. We use a two-stage approach to study this issue: first, we create a typology of graduates’ integration paths and then estimate the likelihood of following a specific trajectory through multinomial logit analysis. Our findings reveal a diverse range of professional journeys, with graduates from open-access institutions facing higher rates of unemployment and continuing their studies, and women experiencing more precarious situations. This study stands out in the literature in several ways. Unlike previous research on the topic, we develop an index of soft skills that incorporates multiple dimensions. Additionally, we use individual data from a regional survey conducted by ANAPEC, making this the first study of its kind for Morocco. The results of our study can inform our understanding of the importance of soft skills for youth employability and the need for training policies in a rapidly changing job market. In terms of employment policy, our findings on the intertwining of first-time and long-term unemployment among higher education graduates suggest the need for a comprehensive strategy that focuses on the organization of the initial integration phase. To achieve this, the efforts of Career Centers must be broadened, consolidated, and evaluated. Full article

This paper studies the effect of a shock in the hospitality sector, namely the energy price increase, with stated preference methods and performs the subsequent analysis with a mixture of quantitative and qualitative tools. The hospitality sector is very important and is the backbone of the tourism industry worldwide. We designed and administered two semi-structured anonymous questionnaires that were sent randomly to recipients for completion. One questionnaire investigated tourists’ behavior, visit and their stay and their spending intentions, whereas the second questionnaire investigated the hoteliers/managers estimations and beliefs on energy price increases and whether or how this price increase would have an effect on tourists’ behavior and their visit, stay and spending intentions in the destination. Through two surveys, we collected answers to questions for three consecutive years—2021: representing the past/before the energy crisis, 2022: the present/the time of the crisis breakout and 2023: the future/after the crisis outbreak. Overall, a lower tourist expenditure is found for the future due to the energy price shock, but there are no significant differences between the answers of the two groups. Our results are insightful for tourism policy makers, hoteliers and managers and particularly those economies that rely heavily on tourism, e.g., island economies. Full article

This study sought to examine the impact of air pollution on health in Africa. Air pollution is a major public health concern around the world. Exposure to air pollution has been linked to a slew of negative health consequences, ranging from subclinical effects, physiological changes in pulmonary functions and the cardiovascular system, to clinical symptoms, outpatient and emergency-room visits, hospital admissions, and finally to premature death. Health impact assessments indicate that sub-Saharan Africa suffers a high burden of disease and premature deaths, attributable to environmental pollution in the world. The health and economic repercussions of rapid pollution increases could jeopardize African efforts to enhance economic development, establish human capital, and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite all these, literature on pollution and health is still scanty in the case of Africa. This study was quantitative in nature, and it used a difference GMM approach to estimate its model. The GMM results showed that children are negatively affected by pollution. Children under the age of five are especially at risk, and the effects are believed to be most severe in developing countries, where exposure to high levels of ambient air pollution throughout childhood is thought to lower total life expectancy by an average of 4–5 years. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that African countries must not overlook the pollution problem. They must promote and use low carbon technologies and services. In the absence of active intervention, pollution will soon raise morbidity and death. Full article

This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants of global bilateral remittance flows. Unlike existing studies, which have been often hampered by the lack of comprehensive and large-enough datasets, we use data originally covering 214 countries over the 2010–2017 period. We employ a gravity-model approach to explore the role played by dyadic and country-specific covariates in explaining remittances. We find that remittance flows are robustly and strongly impacted by size effects (i.e., number of migrants in the host country and population at home), transaction costs, common social, political, and cultural ties, output growth rate, and financial development at home. We also document the existence of a robust non-linear relationship between per capita income at home and remittance flows, both in the aggregate and across income groups. Full article

In recent times, the green transition, by promoting carbon neutrality, has become highly imperative to meet environmental challenges. The present literature review study seeks to explore the intersecting role of greener innovations in facilitating financial inclusion for a sustainable future. Within the global agenda is the goal of carbon neutrality, with the aim of reducing environmental impact and mitigating climate change. Aim: The present study aims to investigate the role that technological innovations play in the financial inclusion of achieving climate neutrality. Method: Through a systematic literature review, we investigate how new innovations generate new investment opportunities and promote sustainable development. However, fair, accessible, and inclusive financing is crucial. Findings: the analyzed documents in this study shows that technological innovations can play an important role in financial inclusion for carbon neutrality and provide some important policy implications. Indeed, a favorable regulatory environment could generate positive effects already in the short term, with important environmental, economic, and social repercussions. Full article