Search Results (1,191)

Drought events are critical environmental threats that yield several socioeconomic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, such as agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydrological drought occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections obtained using the quantile delta mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increased duration and severity of events over the continent and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by decision-makers and energy planners. Full article

A prevalent engineering task in practice is calculating the annual balance of sediments on some watercourses. This is particularly challenging when assessing the backfilling of river reservoirs that have a multifunctional purpose. Trakošćan Lake was built in the period from 1850 to 1862 as a pond and landscape addition to the park and Trakošćan castle. After 60 years, the lake was drained in 2022, and the work began on sediment excavation to improve the lake’s ecological condition due to about 200,000 cubic meters of deposited silt in the lake. In this research, the annual sediment production is calculated for the long-term period 1961–2020, based on empirical parametric methods (Fleming, Brunne). The results are compared with results from previous projects and recent sediment deposit investigations. Since there are no changes in LC/LU on this natural catchment, the decreasing trends in long-term sediment transport were compared with meteorological values, daily rainfall, and snow days. It is concluded that the intensity characteristics of the rainfall should be investigated more in detail and could provide much more tangible information regarding climate change impacts. Some targets for future monitoring design and research techniques are set. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive review of low-carbon materials and construction techniques commonly used in vernacular buildings. The study highlights the relevance of vernacular architecture in the context of the shift towards sustainable construction practices. A combination of a climatic zone map, vernacular language type map, and continent map is used to identify the vernacular regions. Eight bio-based low-carbon materials, including wood, adobe, rammed earth, cob, sod, thatch, bamboo, and straw bales, are discussed, along with their characteristics, availability, and environmental impacts. The construction techniques associated with these materials are explained, emphasizing their simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and adaptability. The paper also explores two important design approaches: design for disassembly and design for modularity that were used in vernacular building. The review found the use of low-carbon materials and construction techniques derived from vernacular architecture can contribute to minimizing waste, reducing environmental impacts, and promoting a circular economy in the building industry. This research provides valuable insights for architects, engineers, and policymakers seeking sustainable alternatives in the construction sector. Full article

This study analyzed long-term extreme precipitation indices using 4 × 4 km gridded data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2018. The study examined trends in extreme precipitation over three districts (Lay Gayint, Tach Gayint, and Simada) in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests were used to study extreme precipitation trends. Based on the ITA result, the calculated values of nine indices (90% of the analyzed indices) showed significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 70% (seven indices) showed significantly increasing trends at p < 0.01. On the other hand, 60% of the extreme indices showed significant downward trends (p < 0.01) in Simada. The MK test revealed that 30% of the extreme indices had significantly increasing trends (p < 0.01) in Lay Gayint. In Tach Gayint, 30% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05, while 10% of the extreme indices exhibited significant increasing trends at p < 0.01. In Simada, 20% of the extreme indices showed significant increasing trends at p < 0.05. Overall, the results showed that the ITA method can identify a variety of significant trends that the MK test misses. Full article

Climate change can have an influence on rainfall that significantly affects the magnitude frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, variability, and trends of rainfall over the Mahi Basin in India is an important objective of the present work. Accordingly, a serial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and Pettitt’s test were used in the rainfall analysis. The outcomes were derived from the monthly precipitation data (1901–2012) of 14 meteorology stations in the Mahi Basin. The serial autocorrelation results showed that there is no autocorrelation in the data series. The rainfall statistics denoted that the Mahi Basin receives 94.8% of its rainfall (821 mm) in the monsoon period (June–September). The normalized accumulated departure from the mean reveals that the annual and monsoon rainfall of the Mahi Basin were below average from 1901 to 1930 and above average from 1930 to 1990, followed by a period of fluctuating conditions. Annual and monsoon rainfall variations increase in the lower catchment of the basin. The annual and monsoon rainfall trend analysis specified a significant declining tendency for four stations and an increasing tendency for 3 stations, respectively. A significant declining trend in winter rainfall was observed for 9 stations under review. Likewise, out of 14 stations, 9 stations denote a significant decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, there is no significant increasing or decreasing tendency in annual, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall in the Mahi Basin. The Mann–Kendall test and innovative trend analysis indicate identical tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall on the basin scale. The annual and monsoon rainfall of the basin showed a positive shift in rainfall after 1926. The rainfall analysis confirms that despite spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, there are no significant positive or negative trends of annual and monsoon rainfall on the basin scale. It suggests that the Mahi Basin received average rainfall (867 mm) annually and in the monsoon season (821 mm) from 1901 to 2012, except for a few years of high and low rainfall. Therefore, this study is important for flood and drought management, agriculture, and water management in the Mahi Basin. Full article

Snow cover affects the global surface energy balance and, with its high albedo, exerts a cooling effect on the Earth’s climate. Decreases in snow cover alter the flow of solar energy from being reflected away from Earth to being absorbed, increasing the Earth’s surface temperature. To gain a global understanding of snow cover change, in situ measurements are too few and far between, so remotely sensed data are needed. This research used the medium-resolution sensor MODIS on the Terra satellite, which has been observing global snow cover almost daily since the year 2000. Here, the MOD10C2 eight-day maximum value composite time series data from February 2000 to March 2023 were analyzed to detect global and regional trends in snow cover extent for the first 23 years of the 21st century. Trends in snow cover change during different time periods (seasons and snow-year) were examined using the Mann—Kendall test and the univariate differencing analysis. Both methods produced similar results. Globally, snow cover declined two to ten times as much as it increased, depending on the season of analysis, and annually, global snow cover decreased 5.12% (not including Antarctica or Greenland) based on the Mann—Kendall test at the 95th percentile (p < 0.05). Regionally, Asia had the greatest net area decline in snow cover, followed by Europe. Although North America has the second-largest extent of snow cover, it had the least amount of net decreasing snow cover relative to its size. South America had the greatest local decline in snow cover, decreasing 20.60% of its annual (snow-year) snow cover area. The Australia–New Zealand region, with just 0.34% of the global snow cover, was the only region to have a net increase in snow cover, increasing 3.61% of its annual snow cover area. Full article

The winter climate of the northeastern Dominican Republic features steady rainfall, which sustains cash crop production. Using a representative season, December 2016–February 2017, the mesoscale climate is characterized by high-resolution reanalysis, satellite measurements and local observations, and statistical analyses of time series from an index area of 18.8–19.6° N, 70.4–69.6° W in the Cibao Valley, where cacao and coffee are grown. Winter rainfall depends on strong trade winds that push shallow stratiform convections over 100 km inland, where nocturnal drainage flows induce orographic uplift. Interannual climate variability is studied in the context of cacao and coffee production in the years 1976–2019. Lag correlations demonstrate that higher yields follow a wet autumn, a windy winter with cool sea temperatures, and a dry spring. Changes in high-value agricultural production in the northeastern Dominican Republic may be anticipated by the climatic determinants uncovered here. Full article

Due to the important role of water resources in the growth of the world’s economy, drought causes global concern for its severe worldwide implications on different sectors, such as biodiversity, farming, public water supply, energy, tourism, human health, and ecosystem services. In particular, drought events can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts in countries depending on rain-fed agriculture such as the ones in the Mediterranean region, which, due to a detected increase in warming and precipitation decrease, is considered a climate change hotspot. In this context, in this paper, meteorological drought in the Calabria region (southern Italy) has been characterized considering the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) evaluated at different timescales. First, the temporal distribution of the most severe dry episodes has been evaluated. Then, a trend analysis has been conducted considering the different seasons, the wet (autumn and winter) and dry (spring and summer) periods, and the annual scale. Finally, the relationship between drought and some teleconnection patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation—ENSO, and the Mediterranean Oscillation—MO) has been investigated. Results show that the majority of the severe/extreme drought events have been observed between 1985 and 2008. Moreover, a decrease in SPI values has been observed in winter and spring, in both the wet and dry periods, and upon the annual scale considering the 12-month SPI and the 24-month SPI. Finally, a link between the drought episodes in the Calabria region and the NAO phases and the MO has been identified. Since drought episodes can severely impact water resources and their uses, the findings presented in this work can be useful to plan and manage the water supply for household, farming, and industrial uses. Full article

Climate change impacts, the resulting spatiotemporal changes, and growing uncertainty exert pressure on city leaders and policy makers to create climate adaptive development strategies worldwide. This article introduces climate urbanism as a new development paradigm that advocates for a climate adaptive urban development process, safeguarding urban economics and infrastructure, and ensuring equitable implementation of related strategies. The objective of this article is to determine how far a climate vulnerable city in the Global South has progressed toward climate urbanism. The study employs Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines to develop a conceptual framework. Afterward, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and indexing are used to develop a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) method to assess the selected climate sensitive factors related to climate urbanism. Findings reveal that the city of Khulna’s climate urbanism index score is 0.36, which is extremely low and denotes subpar urban performance. ‘Climate Conscious Governance’ and ‘Climate Smart Infrastructure’ contribute little, while ‘Adaptive and Dynamic Urban Form’ and ‘Urban Ecosystem Services’ contribute even less. The binary logistic regression analysis reveals the significant indicators of (transformative) climate urbanism. The article provides a critical lens for stakeholders to evaluate climate urbanism and promote urban sustainability in the face of climate change. Full article

Our aim was to investigate the association between climate anxiety and mental health in a general adult population. Cross-sectional data of the general adult population were used (n = 3091 individuals aged 18 to 74 years; March 2022). The Climate Anxiety Scale was used to assess climate anxiety. Probable depression was quantified using the PHQ-9, and the GAD-7 was used to assess probable anxiety. Adjusted for sex, age, marital status, having children in the household, highest level of school education, employment situation, smoking behavior, alcohol intake, frequency of sports activities, chronic illnesses and self-rated health and coronavirus anxiety, multiple logistic regressions showed that a higher climate anxiety was associated with a higher likelihood of probable depression (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.25–1.50). Moreover, regressions showed that a higher climate anxiety was associated with a higher likelihood of probable anxiety (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15–1.40). In conclusion, our study demonstrated an association between climate anxiety and mental health in Germany. Further research (e.g., based on longitudinal data) is required to confirm our study’s findings. Full article

As climate change has intensified flood risk and damage in many low-lying areas of the world, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which typically exist in developing countries, have endured high flood risks without much support for relief. This study investigates how SMEs in flood-prone areas of Colombo, Sri Lanka, the largest business hub in the country, have perceived and dealt with flood loss and damage in the past ten years. We conducted field surveys and a questionnaire survey among 60 SME owners in two flood-prone administrative units from March to June 2020. The results show that informal businesses experienced more flood loss and damage than other community members. Also, the community dominated by informal businesses tended to be located closer to potential flood sources. Ownership and awareness about flood insurance were very low in our study areas. Temporary business closure was the most serious loss experienced by informal business communities. These communities depended on personal savings to recover from floods. Our multiple regression analysis found that age, education, and experience significantly influenced SME owners’ perceptions and experiences about floods. After discussing these findings, this paper offers recommendations to mitigate disaster loss and damage to SMEs. In particular, it highlights the importance of community-level awareness and mitigation efforts rather than administrative unit-level mitigation plans. Also, the government needs to register informal businesses by providing a more flexible business registration mechanism. Full article

This paper discusses what is, to our knowledge, the oldest subdaily measurement series of humidity taken over several years. Louis Morin performed the measurements in Paris, three times a day, between May 1701 and June 1711. A correlation analysis of Morin’s humidity measurements with various meteorological variables yields results comparable to those of a parallel analysis of the relative humidity measurements of the E-OBS data: the Spearman correlation coefficient between the humidity and the daily minimum temperature is −0.43 (p < 0.01); with the mean temperature, it is −0.54 (p < 0.01); with the maximum temperature, it is −0.59 (p < 0.01); with the diurnal temperature range, it is −0.65 (p < 0.01); and with the total cloud cover, 0.33 (p < 0.01). However, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.11 (p < 0.01), no correlation is found with the precipitation data. Further evidence for the plausibility of the measurements is shown by a day-by-day analysis of the first half-year of 1709. Here, abrupt changes in the humidity measurements of Morin can be explained by the other measurements/observations of Morin. According to the correlation analysis, indirect notes in his journal, and others, we argue that Morin used the hygrometer developed by Vincenzo Viviani. However, the conversion of the data to common units is not performed and is subject to further research. Full article

Regional climate change is affected by global warming, large-scale inter-regional circulation, and land use/cover. As a result of different ecological, economic, and social conditions, climate adaptation actions vary from region to region, including community-based adaptation in small island developing states, enhancing flood resilience in Europe, weather index insurance promotion in Africa, climate change adaptation based on traditional knowledge in the Polar Regions, and global joint decision-making in terms of regional issues of the Ocean. This paper takes the above five typical cases as the research objects, and the multi-case comparative research method is adopted to discuss regional climate change adaptation based on the pressure–state–response framework. It found that: (1) regional climate change adaptation faces significant pressure from cross-regional flows of finance, population, and species under climate change; (2) climate change hotspot maps based on climate change projections show regional climate vulnerability; (3) responses for regional climate change adaptation require active promotion of multi-level governance with horizontal and vertical cooperation. In the future, regional climate change adaptation should focus on inter-regional climate justice and equality, regional climate change adaptation pathways optimization, and how to effectively learn from typical regional climate adaptation cases. Full article

This study aims to evaluate the potential of ERA5 precipitation and temperature reanalysis for snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation by considering the role of catchment spatial scale in controlling the errors obtained by comparison with corresponding SWE simulations from ground stations. This is obtained by exploiting a semi-distributed snowpack model (TOPMELT) implemented over the upper Adige River basin in the Eastern Italian Alps, where 16 sub-catchments of varying sizes are considered. The comparison is carried out from 1992 to 2019. The findings show that ERA5 precipitation overestimated low-intensity rainfall (drizzle problem) and underestimated high-intensity rainfall, while ERA5 temperature underestimated observations. The overestimation of low-intensity rainfall created fictitious low-intensity snowfall events, which, when combined with colder ERA5 temperature, resulted in delayed snowmelt and increased fictitious snow-cover days over the study area. The quantile mapping (QM) technique was used to remove errors in ERA5 variables. It was shown that ERA5 could struggle to resolve the orographic enhancement in precipitation, which may be particularly important during high-SWE years. This reduces the positive precipitation bias during those years, thus reducing comparatively the ability of the quantile mapping technique to correct for bias homogeneously during all years. This study highlighted the importance of temperature correction over precipitation correction in SWE simulation, particularly for smaller basins. Full article

This manuscript introduces an exploratory case study of the SIMFAC’s (Sistema de Información Meteorológica de la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana) operational implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme that provides meteorological information for military, public, and private aviation. In particular, it investigates whether the assimilation scheme in SIMFAC’s implementation improves the prediction of the variables of interest compared to the implementation without data assimilation (CTRL). Consequently, this study compares SIMFAC’S 3DVAR-WRF operational implementation in Colombia with a CTRL with the same parameterization (without 3DVAR assimilation) against the ground and satellite observations in two operational forecast windows. The simulations are as long as an operational run, and the evaluation is performed using the root mean square error, the mean fractional bias, the percent bias, the correlation factor, and metrics based on contingency tables. It also evaluates the model’s results according to the regions of Colombia, accounting for the country’s topographical differences. The findings reveal that, in general, the operational forecast (3DVAR) is similar to the CTRL without data assimilation, indicating the need for further improvement of the 3DVAR-WRF implementation. Full article